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Predictions

Prediction intelligence. Aggregate visibility into how the AdTAO prediction engine performs against held-out outcomes at epoch close, with permanent per-epoch reports and per-configuration insight pages.

What this pillar is.

The predictions pillar is the public reference for the AdTAO prediction engine. Every published aggregate reconciles to on-chain SN21 validator output for a stated epoch range; aggregation scripts are open. The pillar publishes per-epoch reports, per-configuration insight pages, and a sample-episode walkthrough; the live forecasting tool is deferred to a later milestone per IA D-16.

What's coming.

Each item below becomes a stable URL when its data substrate ships. URLs announced here will not change once published.

  • /predictions/epochs

    Index of per-epoch reports. Each report is permanent at /predictions/epochs/[id], states the input parameters, and is reconcilable to on-chain data.

    IA Phase 3 — first report at epoch close after orchestrator ships

  • /predictions/methodology

    User-readable scoring explanation. How the engine scores predictions, which formula version applies to which epoch range, links to the SN21 reward-mechanism doc.

    IA Phase 2 — alongside methodology audit

  • /predictions/sample-episode

    Long-form walked example through one prediction lifecycle: held-out window, prediction emitted, epoch close, score computed, ground truth observed.

    IA Phase 3 — after the first published epoch report

  • /predictions/insights

    Curated insight articles on prediction-engine behaviour. TRUST-framed; never names archetypes or detection logic per IA D-19.

    IA Phase 3 — first article when there is enough epoch data

  • /predictions/configurations

    Programmatic per-configuration prediction insight pages. One page per material configuration; refreshed at epoch close.

    IA Phase 3 — programmatic SEO build

Canonical source.

The authoritative record for this pillar lives at github.com/ippcteam/SN21-adtao . Pages on this site are derivative human-readable summaries; the provenance statement above the body links back to the same source.