Prediction performance
SN21 models predict what each Google Ads change will do before the outcome is known. When it settles, every prediction is scored — this shows how reliable they are, one row per kind of change.
How to read this page
- What we measure
- The change's effect on cost, conversions and the goal metric — CPA (cost per lead) for lead-generation accounts, ROAS (return on ad spend) for ecommerce.
- At what level
- The campaign the change belongs to — not the whole account. An ad, keyword or ad-group change is measured on its campaign's results against a 60-day baseline.
- Over what window
- The next 7, 14, or 28 days after the change — switch the window on the table below.
Changes settled & scored
22,880
served changes settled since 20 August 2026
Kinds of change
14
one line each, below
Models compared
207
every model predicts every change
Best model today
UID 18
leaderboard #1
Where the number comes from
75 days, 2026-08-20 to 2026-11-02- 1. Captured398,783raw changes per day, before any rule
- 2. Measurable episodes71,990since 20 August 2026, after the published rules and 72-hour clustering
- 3. Served to models27,984of 34,461 eligible; 6,949 held out for validation, 231 on our own accounts
- 4. Settled & scored23,337this page — served changes old enough to have settled
- 5. Predictions scored6,046,149every model predicts every change
Each stage is deliberate. The page counts the fourth: a change reaches it about 15 days after it happened, once its first outcome window has closed and settled.
14 groups covering 93 change types. Open a row to see the types inside it.
Budget change — when a daily budget was raised or lowered 5,434 Reliable UID 42 6 types ›
Across 5,434 such changes (567,319 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Bid strategy switch — when the bid strategy was switched from one type to another 153 Reliable — 8 types ›
Across 153 such changes (15,975 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Bid target change — when a bid-strategy target value changed (e.g. Target CPA $60 → $50) 824 Reliable UID 234 13 types ›
Across 824 such changes (94,656 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Negative keyword changes — when negative keywords were added 3,786 Reliable UID 31 16 types ›
Across 3,786 such changes (404,922 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Keyword changes — when this changed 1,089 Reliable UID 224 2 types ›
Across 1,089 such changes (114,949 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Other criterion changes (kind not recorded) — when this changed 2,375 Reliable — 6 types ›
Across 2,375 such changes (245,976 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Location, audience and demographic targeting — when this changed 185 Reliable — 3 types ›
Across 185 such changes (19,179 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Device, schedule and placement targeting — when this changed 312 Reliable UID 242 2 types ›
Across 312 such changes (32,611 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Roughly right Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Campaign pause / enable — when this changed 1,178 Reliable UID 234 1 type ›
Across 1,178 such changes (133,225 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Roughly right Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Roughly right Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Ad group pause / enable — when this changed 172 Reliable UID 42 2 types ›
Across 172 such changes (18,391 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Other ad group changes — when this changed 226 Reliable — 3 types ›
Across 226 such changes (23,130 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Ad changes — when this changed 314 Reliable — 5 types ›
Across 314 such changes (32,957 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Asset changes — when this changed 1,039 Reliable — 1 type ›
Across 1,039 such changes (103,994 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Combined changes — when several kinds of change happened together 5,793 Reliable UID 42 25 types ›
Across 5,793 such changes (606,433 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
14 groups covering 93 change types. Open a row to see the types inside it.
Budget change — when a daily budget was raised or lowered 5,007 Roughly right UID 18 6 types ›
Across 5,007 such changes (526,484 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Bid strategy switch — when the bid strategy was switched from one type to another 138 Reliable UID 107 8 types ›
Across 138 such changes (14,593 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Bid target change — when a bid-strategy target value changed (e.g. Target CPA $60 → $50) 551 Roughly right UID 235 13 types ›
Across 551 such changes (57,730 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Negative keyword changes — when negative keywords were added 3,246 Reliable UID 170 16 types ›
Across 3,246 such changes (344,656 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Keyword changes — when this changed 988 Reliable — 2 types ›
Across 988 such changes (104,920 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Other criterion changes (kind not recorded) — when this changed 2,172 Reliable UID 237 6 types ›
Across 2,172 such changes (231,272 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Location, audience and demographic targeting — when this changed 180 Reliable — 3 types ›
Across 180 such changes (19,040 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Device, schedule and placement targeting — when this changed 278 Reliable UID 242 2 types ›
Across 278 such changes (30,007 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Roughly right Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Campaign pause / enable — when this changed 1,015 Reliable UID 51 1 type ›
Across 1,015 such changes (107,564 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Ad group pause / enable — when this changed 142 Roughly right — 2 types ›
Across 142 such changes (15,107 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Other ad group changes — when this changed 195 Reliable — 3 types ›
Across 195 such changes (20,537 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Ad changes — when this changed 282 Reliable UID 55 5 types ›
Across 282 such changes (30,169 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
Asset changes — when this changed 820 Reliable UID 237 1 type ›
Across 820 such changes (86,119 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Combined changes — when several kinds of change happened together 5,266 Reliable UID 224 25 types ›
Across 5,266 such changes (555,071 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 (UID 18) on this change type: Reliable.
Broken down by kind:
14 groups covering 90 change types. Open a row to see the types inside it.
Budget change — when a daily budget was raised or lowered 4,000 Roughly right UID 126 6 types ›
Across 4,000 such changes (414,733 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Bid strategy switch — when the bid strategy was switched from one type to another 93 Reliable UID 72 7 types ›
Across 93 such changes (9,567 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Bid target change — when a bid-strategy target value changed (e.g. Target CPA $60 → $50) 421 Roughly right — 13 types ›
Across 421 such changes (43,505 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Negative keyword changes — when negative keywords were added 2,235 Roughly right UID 107 16 types ›
Across 2,235 such changes (230,871 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Keyword changes — when this changed 600 Roughly right — 2 types ›
Across 600 such changes (62,007 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Other criterion changes (kind not recorded) — when this changed 1,297 Reliable UID 126 6 types ›
Across 1,297 such changes (134,153 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Location, audience and demographic targeting — when this changed 113 Roughly right UID 222 3 types ›
Across 113 such changes (11,698 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Device, schedule and placement targeting — when this changed 110 Reliable — 1 type ›
Across 110 such changes (11,315 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Roughly right Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Campaign pause / enable — when this changed 876 Roughly right — 1 type ›
Across 876 such changes (91,797 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Ad group pause / enable — when this changed 85 Roughly right UID 52 2 types ›
Across 85 such changes (8,741 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Other ad group changes — when this changed 130 Reliable — 3 types ›
Across 130 such changes (13,346 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Ad changes — when this changed 172 Reliable UID 55 5 types ›
Across 172 such changes (17,723 model predictions), a prediction here is reliable. What that's made of:
- Reliable Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
Asset changes — when this changed 437 Roughly right — 1 type ›
Across 437 such changes (44,852 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Combined changes — when several kinds of change happened together 3,833 Roughly right UID 113 24 types ›
Across 3,833 such changes (394,855 model predictions), a prediction here is roughly right. What that's made of:
- Roughly right Direction — called the change up or down correctly on the goal metric
- Reliable Size — how close the predicted size of the effect was
- Not reliable Range — how often the real result fell inside the predicted range
- Not reliable Goal — how close on the goal number itself (CPA or ROAS)
Today's leaderboard #1 has no scored prediction on this change type yet.
Broken down by kind:
A row reads Too early until at least 500 of its changes have settled. Open any row for the score breakdown and the best model.
Counted: changes to things that already exist, once their outcome has settled.
Not counted: brand-new campaigns & ads (no "before" to score), and recent changes still settling.
The winning model over time
The same winning model, week by week — is the best model on the subnet getting better? Every point is the mean of per-entry scores already published in the daily receipts, so anyone can recompute it.
- 7-day horizon
- 14-day horizon
- 28-day horizon
- week still open
| Week | Week ending | Horizon | Mean score | Entries | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W34 | 2026-08-23 | 7-day | 0.606 | 1086 | settled |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-30 | 7-day | 0.605 | 390 | settled |
| 2026-W35 | 2026-08-30 | 14-day | 0.592 | 1174 | settled |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-09-06 | 7-day | 0.591 | 861 | settled |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-09-06 | 14-day | 0.594 | 863 | settled |
| 2026-W36 | 2026-09-06 | 28-day | 0.518 | 489 | settled |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-13 | 7-day | 0.600 | 2502 | settled |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-13 | 14-day | 0.567 | 884 | settled |
| 2026-W37 | 2026-09-13 | 28-day | 0.580 | 1581 | settled |
| 2026-W38 | 2026-09-20 | 7-day | 0.601 | 2505 | settled |
| 2026-W38 | 2026-09-20 | 14-day | 0.577 | 2541 | settled |
| 2026-W38 | 2026-09-20 | 28-day | 0.585 | 874 | settled |
| 2026-W39 | 2026-09-27 | 7-day | 0.602 | 2467 | settled |
| 2026-W39 | 2026-09-27 | 14-day | 0.581 | 2536 | settled |
| 2026-W39 | 2026-09-27 | 28-day | 0.555 | 892 | settled |
| 2026-W40 | 2026-10-04 | 7-day | 0.605 | 2181 | settled |
| 2026-W40 | 2026-10-04 | 14-day | 0.582 | 2511 | settled |
| 2026-W40 | 2026-10-04 | 28-day | 0.563 | 2555 | settled |
| 2026-W41 | 2026-10-11 | 7-day | 0.635 | 2820 | settled |
| 2026-W41 | 2026-10-11 | 14-day | 0.590 | 2236 | settled |
| 2026-W41 | 2026-10-11 | 28-day | 0.575 | 2571 | settled |
| 2026-W42 | 2026-10-18 | 7-day | 0.617 | 3063 | settled |
| 2026-W42 | 2026-10-18 | 14-day | 0.602 | 2849 | settled |
| 2026-W42 | 2026-10-18 | 28-day | 0.579 | 2526 | settled |
| 2026-W43 | 2026-10-25 | 7-day | 0.618 | 2825 | settled |
| 2026-W43 | 2026-10-25 | 14-day | 0.593 | 3130 | settled |
| 2026-W43 | 2026-10-25 | 28-day | 0.575 | 2248 | settled |
| 2026-W44 | 2026-11-01 | 7-day | 0.633 | 3080 | settled |
| 2026-W44 | 2026-11-01 | 14-day | 0.600 | 2867 | settled |
| 2026-W44 | 2026-11-01 | 28-day | 0.580 | 2868 | settled |
| 2026-W45 | 2026-11-08 | 7-day | 0.623 | 477 | week still open |
| 2026-W45 | 2026-11-08 | 14-day | 0.597 | 623 | week still open |
| 2026-W45 | 2026-11-08 | 28-day | 0.591 | 638 | week still open |
Where these numbers come from
Every score on this page is the settle-flow score in the daily receipts, published per prediction at /v1/daily — the same numbers that feed the leaderboard. This page and the leaderboard can never disagree, because there is nothing here to disagree with: it is the same data, added up by change type.